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Beneath the surface

After a straight-line upward movement for most asset classes in Q1, Q2 has been more mixed. Entering H2, the big picture remains broadly supportive. However, beneath the surface, financial markets appear vulnerable to multiple threats, from stalling activity momentum and toppish technicals to faltering Tech leadership and election uncertainty.

‘SMID’ is beautiful… despite France

Europe faces significant structural challenges that impact its productivity compared to the US. Market fragmentation and regulation, a high proportion of small businesses, elevated taxes and lower R&D spending are some of the key contributors to this disparity.

US public debt: a potential “Liz Truss” scenario?

If a frog is thrown in boiling water, it will leap out instantly. But if placed in cold water that is slowly heated, it will supposedly stay there. As the tale goes, the frog only perceives the slow change in temperature as a danger when it is beyond saving. In reality of course, frogs are not that foolish. Rather, the story serves as a parable for the following point: people often seem to ignore slowly building risks until it is too late.